Danish PtX development pathways for 2030 - Master Thesis

Rostved, Martin ; Bihlet, Morten

4. term

Sustaianable Cities, Master

2021

2021-06-04

96

Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan Power-to-X (PtX) kan udvikles i Danmark frem mod 2030 på en måde, der understøtter målet om 70% reduktion af drivhusgasudledninger i 2030 og klimaneutralitet i 2050. Med udgangspunkt i transportsektorens behov for grønne brændsler til især tung transport og skibsfart belyses, hvilke elektrolysekapaciteter (i intervallet ca. 2–6 GW, som foreslået af forskellige aktører) der kan integreres i det nationale energisystem under forudsætning af tilstrækkelig vedvarende elektricitet. Specialet opstiller en teoretisk ramme med pathway- og choice awareness-teori og anvender en metodisk tilgang, der kombinerer samfundsøkonomisk gennemførlighed (bl.a. WWW-rammen), en national energisystemanalyse med scenarier (fra et basisforløb til 2.000–6.000 MW elektrolyse) samt identifikation af kritiske faktorer og beregning af optimal brintlagerkapacitet for at skabe fleksibilitet. Der indgår en state-of-the-art gennemgang af teknologi- og forsyningskæder (fx AEC-elektrolyse, CO2-til metanol/DME/FT-jetfuel, NH3), modenhedsniveauer (TRL) og nettilslutningsmodeller (offsite, onsite, upstream, off-grid). Af den tilgængelige tekst fremgår især behovet for strategisk planlægning, udbygning af vedvarende el – særligt havvind – og samspil med CO2-fangst for at sikre, at PtX-produkter faktisk er grønne; samtidig advares mod projektdrevne løsninger, der ikke passer ind i energisystemet. Kvantitative resultater og detaljerede scenarieresultater præsenteres senere i specialet og fremgår ikke af det medtagne uddrag.

This thesis investigates how Power-to-X (PtX) can be developed in Denmark by 2030 in ways that support the national targets of a 70% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. Focusing on the transport sector’s need for green fuels—particularly for heavy road freight and shipping where direct electrification is difficult—it examines which ranges of electrolysis capacity (approximately 2–6 GW, as proposed by different stakeholders) can be credibly integrated into the national energy system given the availability of renewable electricity. The study sets out a theoretical framework based on pathway and choice awareness theory and applies a methodological approach combining socio-economic feasibility (including a WWW framework), national energy system analysis with scenario modeling (from a baseline to 2,000–6,000 MW electrolysis), identification of critical factors, and calculation of an optimal hydrogen storage level to enhance electrolysis flexibility. A state-of-the-art review covers technology and supply chains (e.g., AEC electrolysis, CO2-to methanol/DME/FT-jet fuel, and NH3), technology readiness (TRL), and grid connection models (offsite, onsite, upstream, off-grid). From the provided text, key needs include strategic planning, expansion of renewable generation—especially offshore wind—and coordination with CO2 capture to ensure PtX products are genuinely green; the text also cautions against project-by-project investments that are not aligned with system needs. Quantitative findings and detailed scenario results are presented later in the thesis and are not included in the excerpt.

[This summary has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project (PDF)]

Energy ; PtX ; Synthetic fuels ; Denmark

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