Compound Flood Risk Dynamics in a Coastal Karst Town: A Hydrosocial Analysis of Sisal, Yucatan
Author
Ayora Ramirez, Ana Cristina
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2026
Submitted on
2026-06-04
Pages
114
Abstract
On very flat karst coasts, flooding often results from several factors at the same time. This thesis examines such compound flood risk in Sisal, the first coastal Pueblo Magico in Yucatán, using a hydrosocial approach that views water, infrastructure, and planning as one connected socio-natural process. We operationalize this approach with an adapted City Resilience Profiling Tool. The study combines MIKE+ 2D Overland simulations of single-driver, compound, and climate-change scenarios with GIS mapping, expert interviews, and a review of relevant policies. The simulations indicate two key limits: a rainfall limit within the town and a storage limit in the western wetland, on a baseline already affected by discharge from the regional aquifer. Norte compound events, a regional weather pattern, dominate flood duration and frequency. Sea-level rise is projected to exceed dune and highway thresholds within this century. Infrastructure analysis makes the hydraulic effects of uncoordinated institutional logics visible, while planning analysis shows fragmentation across federal, state, and municipal authorities without cross-sector coordination. Overall, Sisal’s compound flood risk is the hydraulic expression of institutional fragmentation, rather than a purely natural hazard impacting an exposed town. Because Sisal sets a precedent for coastal Pueblo Magico designations, future designations along the Yucatán coast should not proceed without a compound flood assessment, a cumulative environmental review, and a municipal planning instrument informed by hydrological projections.
På meget flade karstkyster opstår oversvømmelser ofte, når flere faktorer virker samtidig. Denne afhandling undersøger sådan sammensat oversvømmelsesrisiko i Sisal, Yucatáns første kystnære Pueblo Magico, med et hydrosocialt perspektiv, der ser vand, infrastruktur og planlægning som én sammenhængende socio-naturlig proces. Tilgangen operationaliseres med en tilpasset City Resilience Profiling Tool. Studiet kombinerer MIKE+ 2D Overland-simuleringer af enkelt-driver-, sammensatte og klimaforandringsscenarier med GIS-kortlægning, ekspertinterviews og gennemgang af relevante politikker. Simulationerne peger på to centrale grænser: en nedbørsgrænse i byen og en lagringsgrænse i det vestlige vådområde, på et grundniveau der allerede er belastet af afstrømning fra den regionale akvifer. Norte-sammensatte begivenheder, et regionalt vejrfænomen, dominerer oversvømmelsernes varighed og hyppighed. Havniveauet forventes at overskride klit- og hovedvejstærskler inden for dette århundrede. Infrastrukturanalysen gør de hydrauliske konsekvenser af ukoordinerede institutionelle logikker synlige, mens planlægningsanalysen viser fragmentering mellem føderale, statslige og kommunale myndigheder uden tværsektoriel koordinering. Samlet set er Sisals sammensatte oversvømmelsesrisiko den hydrauliske materialisering af institutionel fragmentering snarere end en rent naturlig fare, der rammer en udsat by. Da Sisal fungerer som præcedens for kystnære Pueblo Magico-udpegninger, bør fremtidige udpegninger langs Yucatáns kyst ikke ske uden sammensat oversvømmelsesvurdering, kumulativ miljøgennemgang og et kommunalt planinstrument baseret på hydrologiske fremskrivninger.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]