CO2 emissions - fissioned, flushed or gone with the wind?: Comparative study of cost-effectiveness of different electrical capacity development scenarios in Poland
Author
Wisniewski, Jan Henryk
Term
10. term
Education
Publication year
2009
Pages
78
Abstract
Specialet undersøger, hvilke udviklingsscenarier for Polens elkapacitet der mest omkostningseffektivt kan reducere CO2-udledninger i en sektor, der i 2008 fik 93% af sin strøm fra kul. Med udgangspunkt i den politiske kontekst – herunder Polens annoncerede satsning på atomkraft fra 2008 som led i klimamål samt EU’s tidsrammer for emissionsreduktioner – gennemføres en teknisk-økonomisk sammenligning af kul-, atom-, onshore- og offshore-vind samt vandkraft. Metoden bygger på beregning af levelized production cost (LPC) med antagelser om anlægsinvesteringer, drift og vedligehold (inkl. brændsel), diskonteringsrater, fuldlasttimer og transmissionsomkostninger. For vindressourcer anvendes standardiserede vindfordelinger (Rayleigh/Weibull) og produktionkurver, og der opstilles kapacitetsmix-scenarier samt “lige store emissionsreduktioner”-alternativer. Der gennemføres følsomhedsanalyser for bl.a. vindhastighed, belastningsgrader, energipriser og diskonteringsrater for at teste robustheden af omkostningsestimaterne. Uddraget indeholder ikke resultatafsnittet; de konkrete rangeringer af teknologier og anbefalinger for den mest omkostningseffektive vej til CO2-reduktion præsenteres senere i specialet.
This thesis examines which electricity capacity development pathways in Poland can most cost-effectively reduce CO2 emissions in a system that, in 2008, derived 93% of its power from coal. Framed by national policy moves toward nuclear power announced in 2008 and EU climate timelines, it conducts a techno-economic comparison of coal, nuclear, onshore and offshore wind, and hydropower. The method centers on levelized production cost (LPC) calculations using assumptions for capital expenditure, operations and maintenance (including fuel), discount rates, full-load hours, and transmission costs. Wind resources are modeled using standard wind speed distributions (Rayleigh/Weibull) and turbine production curves, and the study builds capacity-mix scenarios as well as “equal emission reduction” options. Sensitivity analyses vary wind speeds, load factors, energy price parameters, and discount rates to test robustness. The excerpt does not include results; detailed rankings of technologies and recommendations on the most cost-effective CO2 reduction pathway appear later in the thesis.
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