China's South China Sea Strategy - A Structural Realist Case Study
Author
Dinh, Hien Thu
Term
2. Term (Master)
Education
Publication year
2019
Submitted on
2019-05-31
Pages
56
Abstract
Det Sydkinesiske Hav er en af verdens mest omstridte regioner, hvor seks kystparter—Kina, Taiwan, Filippinerne, Vietnam, Brunei og Malaysia—har overlappende krav til havområder og øer. Spændingerne er vokset, blandt andet fordi Kina optræder mere selvhævdende og har øget militariseringen af området. Det skaber utryghed og har bidraget til et våbenkapløb, hvor landene styrker deres militære kapaciteter. Striden handler både om suverænitet og om potentielle naturressourcer under havbunden, som kan dække voksende behov og understøtte økonomisk vækst. Kina, Vietnam og Filippinerne har de mest vidtgående krav; Kina er den eneste part, der i høj grad begrunder sit krav med "historiske rettigheder". Afhandlingen undersøger, hvordan Kinas adfærd i denne konflikt har ændret sig, og analyserer de systemiske faktorer, der har bidraget til skiftet. Analysen bygger på strukturel realisme—en teori i international politik, som ser staters adfærd som formet af magtfordelingen i det internationale system—med fokus på tre kerneideer: magtbalance (stater modvirker hinandens styrke), sikkerhedsdilemma (forsvarstiltag kan opfattes som trusler) og nationale interesser (stater forfølger overlevelse og fordele). Afhandlingen vurderer også, om de ændrede relationer mellem USA og Kina har påvirket deres handlinger. Metodisk anvendes et blandet metode-casestudie, der kombinerer kvalitative og kvantitative kilder, med fokus på perioden 2010–2018, da forskningen ofte peger på 2009–2010 som begyndelsen på Kinas øgede assertivitet. Afhandlingens konklusion er, at systemiske faktorer har påvirket Kinas adfærd og lettet landets opstigning i det internationale system. Den argumenterer for, at Kina nu har revisionistiske intentioner—altså et ønske om at ændre den eksisterende regionale orden—og at den mere assertive adfærd sandsynligvis vil fortsætte for at opnå kontrol i Det Sydkinesiske Hav. Hvis Kina fortsætter med at modernisere sine styrker og øge sine relative kapaciteter, vurderer afhandlingen, at landet på sigt vil kunne presse USA helt ud af området.
The South China Sea is one of the world’s most contested regions, where six coastal parties—China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia—have overlapping claims to waters and islands. Tensions have risen, in part because China has become more assertive and has increased militarization in the area. This heightens insecurity and has contributed to an arms buildup as countries strengthen their militaries. The dispute is about sovereignty but also about potential resources beneath the seabed that can meet growing needs and fuel economies. China, Vietnam, and the Philippines have the most expansive claims; China is the only claimant that largely grounds its claim in "historic rights". This thesis examines how China’s behavior in this dispute has changed and analyzes the systemic factors that have contributed to that shift. It draws on a structural realist framework—an approach in international relations that sees state behavior as shaped by the distribution of power—with three core ideas: balance of power (states counter others’ strength), the security dilemma (defensive moves can be perceived as threats), and national interest (states pursue survival and advantage). The study also considers whether changing U.S.–China relations have influenced their actions. Methodologically, it uses a mixed-methods case study that combines qualitative and quantitative evidence, focusing on 2010–2018, as scholarship often identifies 2009–2010 as the start of China’s heightened assertiveness. The thesis concludes that systemic factors have affected China’s conduct and facilitated its rise within the international system. It argues that China now has revisionist intentions—seeking to change the existing regional order—and that assertive behavior is likely to continue as it seeks control in the South China Sea. If China continues to modernize its forces and increase relative capabilities, the thesis contends it could eventually push the United States entirely out of the area.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
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