China's Choice about RMB Internationalization:Will Belt and Road Initiative accelerate the process
Author
Yang, Daru
Term
4. term
Publication year
2019
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger status og fremtidsudsigter for internationaliseringen af renminbi (RMB) og spørger, om Bælte- og Vej-Initiativet (BVI) kan accelerere processen. Med et mixed-methods design, der kombinerer teoretiske perspektiver fra neoliberal institutionalisme, valutasubstitutionsteori og det ternære paradoks (den umulige trekant) med analyse af empiriske indikatorer og politiktiltag, vurderer studiet bl.a. RMB-internationaliseringsindekset, udviklingen i grænseoverskridende afregning i RMB, finansielle transaktioner, reformer af valutakursregimet samt RMB’s optagelse i IMF’s SDR-kurv. Resultaterne peger på, at RMB-internationaliseringen er accelereret markant siden 2010, men stadig ligger under niveauet for de største internationale valutaer; at brugen af RMB i handel svinger over tid; og at finansielle transaktioner i RMB er stærkt påvirket af kinesiske politikker og valutakursforhold. SDR-optagelsen bekræfter RMB som frit anvendelig valuta, men dens andel af globale valutareserver er fortsat lav, samtidig med at valutakursreformer har skredet frem og stabiliseret RMB-indekset. Kina har iværksat en række direkte tiltag (bl.a. offshore-markeder, CIPS, udbygning af kapitalmarkedsadgange og RMB-råoliefutures) og indirekte drivere (SDR-optagelse, BVI og AIIB), der samlet set understøtter internationalisering. Analysen vurderer, at BVI både skaber et regionalt rum for RMB som afregningsvaluta og kan konsolidere dens internationale rolle, med potentiale til at gøre RMB til en vigtig valuta i BVI-området. Afhandlingen anbefaler at udvide RMB-baseret handel, bruge større direkte investeringer (ODI) til at fremme RMB’s udbredelse, videreudvikle valutakursregimet, styrke det hjemlige finansielle system og infrastruktur samt åbne kapitalregnskabet gradvist og udvikle offshore-markeder med omtanke.
This thesis examines the status and prospects of renminbi (RMB) internationalization and asks whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can accelerate the process. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines theoretical lenses from neoliberal institutionalism, currency substitution theory, and the trilemma with analysis of empirical indicators and policy developments, it assesses the RMB Internationalization Index, cross-border RMB settlement, financial transactions, exchange rate reforms, and the currency’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket. The findings indicate that RMB internationalization has accelerated notably since 2010 but still lags major currencies; RMB use in trade settlement has fluctuated; and RMB financial transactions are highly sensitive to Chinese policy and exchange rate dynamics. While SDR inclusion recognizes the RMB as a freely usable currency, its share of global reserves remains low, and exchange rate reforms have advanced with relative stability. China has pursued a suite of direct measures (including offshore markets, CIPS, expanded capital market links, and RMB crude oil futures) and indirect enablers (SDR inclusion, the BRI, and the AIIB) that together support internationalization. The analysis concludes that the BRI both creates a regional space for RMB settlement and can help consolidate its international role, with potential for the RMB to become a key currency in the BRI region. Policy recommendations include expanding RMB-based trade, leveraging outward direct investment to widen RMB use, further improving the exchange rate regime, strengthening domestic financial systems and infrastructure, and opening the capital account cautiously while developing offshore markets.
[This summary has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project (PDF)]
Documents