Bündnis 90/Die Grünen's Rightward Shift: Explaining the Party's More Restrictive Positioning on Immigration and Integration During the 20th Legislative Period
Author
Röhlk, Sophie
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-01-03
Pages
68
Abstract
This thesis examines why Alliance 90/The Greens adopted a more restrictive stance on immigration and integration during the 20th legislative period. It first documents the shift through three illustrative policy areas—streamlining deportation procedures, introducing payment cards, and debates on deportations to Afghanistan—then tests four Downs-inspired explanations: shifts in Green voters’ preferences, the party’s electoral performance, the repositioning of nearby parties, and the constraints of governing in a coalition. Using a comparative case study of the 19th and 20th Bundestag periods and a Most Similar Systems Design, the analysis identifies two factors most plausibly driving the rightward move: weak state election results in the second half of the 20th period and participation in a coalition with more restrictive partners who pushed for change. In contrast, there is no evidence that changes in the Green electorate’s attitudes or neighboring parties’ positions were decisive. The study contributes to debates on when and why parties recalibrate positions in specific policy domains and highlights the need to examine interaction effects between electoral incentives and coalition dynamics.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvorfor Bündnis 90/Die Grünen indtog en mere restriktiv linje på udlændinge- og integrationsområdet i den 20. valgperiode. Skiftet dokumenteres gennem tre illustrative sagsområder—effektivisering af udsendelsesprocedurer, indførelse af betalingskort og debatten om udsendelser til Afghanistan—hvorefter fire Downs-inspirerede forklaringer afprøves: ændringer i de grønnes vælgeres holdninger, partiets valgpræstationer, nabopartiers repositionering samt regeringsansvar i en koalition. Med et komparativt casestudie af den 19. og 20. valgperiode i Forbundsdagen og et Most Similar Systems Design finder analysen to faktorer, der mest sandsynligt har drevet højreforskydningen: svage delstatsvalgresultater i anden halvdel af den 20. periode og deltagelse i en koalition med mere restriktive partnere, som lagde pres for ændringer. Derimod findes der ikke evidens for, at ændringer i de grønnes vælgeres holdninger eller nabopartiers positioner havde en afgørende betydning. Studiet bidrager til debatten om, hvornår og hvorfor partier omlægger politik på specifikke områder, og peger på behovet for at undersøge samspillet mellem valgincitamenter og koalitionsdynamikker.
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