Benchmarking Inflation Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Danmarks Nationalbank and Leading Central Banks
Author
Jensen, Tobias Faurholt
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2025
Pages
98
Abstract
This thesis benchmarks Danmarks Nationalbank’s inflation forecasting against Sveriges Riksbank, the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England to identify institutional and methodological practices that can improve forecast accuracy in Denmark. Using a structured comparative framework and institution-focused case studies, it evaluates forecasting models (including MONA, Bayesian VAR, DSGE, and nowcasting tools), data use and real-time integration, communication and transparency, and institutional constraints. The analysis finds notable differences in model complexity, reliance on high-frequency data, and the communication of uncertainty. Danmarks Nationalbank employs a robust semi-structural approach centered on MONA but makes relatively limited use of high-frequency inputs and uncertainty communication. The thesis recommends methodological diversification, greater transparency, and adoption of nowcasting tools to enhance responsiveness and credibility. These insights offer lessons for small, open economies seeking to refine forecasting practices by learning from international peers.
Denne afhandling benchmarker Danmarks Nationalbanks inflationsprognoser i forhold til Sveriges Riksbank, Den Europæiske Centralbank, Federal Reserve og Bank of England for at identificere institutionelle og metodiske tilgange, der kan styrke prognosenøjagtighed i Danmark. Med et struktureret, komparativt rammeværk gennemføres institutionsnære case-studier, der vurderer modeller (bl.a. MONA, Bayesian VAR, DSGE og nowcasting-værktøjer), databrug og realtidsintegration, kommunikation og transparens samt institutionelle begrænsninger. Analysen peger på markante forskelle i modelkompleksitet, brug af højfrekvente data og praksis for at formidle usikkerhed. Danmarks Nationalbank anvender en robust semistrukturel tilgang omkring MONA, men gør relativt mindre brug af højfrekvente input og tydelig usikkerhedskommunikation. På den baggrund anbefales metodisk diversificering, større gennemsigtighed og implementering af nowcasting-værktøjer for at øge responsivitet og troværdighed. Resultaterne giver læring for små, åbne økonomier, der kan forbedre deres prognosepraksis ved at drage nytte af internationale erfaringer.
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