Asymmetric and Complex Interdependence: The Evolution of EU-OPEC Relations Before and After the 2022 Ukraine Invasion

Weber, Magnus Sommer

4. semester

International Relations, MSc.

2025

2025-05-28

59

Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan EU’s politiske og institutionelle håndtering af olieafhængigheden af OPEC har udviklet sig før og efter Ruslands invasion af Ukraine i 2022. Med udgangspunkt i teorier om asymmetrisk og kompleks interdependens analyserer afhandlingen, hvordan geopolitiske chok kan omsætte strukturelle økonomiske bånd til politiserede sårbarheder. Metodisk anvendes et tidsafgrænset komparativt casestudie af perioden før og efter invasionen, der kombinerer kvantitative vurderinger af olieimportkanaler og afhængighed med kvalitative casestudier af EU-medlemsstater. Den komparative analyse identificerer skiftende mønstre i EU’s olieafhængighed samt forskelle i sårbarheder og eksponeringer på tværs af stater og institutioner. Resultaterne peger på, at EU’s afhængighed af OPEC er blevet styrket i takt med begrænsningen af russisk olieimport, samtidig med at de institutionelle svar er blevet udbygget gennem strategiske reserver, kollektive tiltag og energidialoger med tredjeparter. Afhandlingen konkluderer, at EU’s respons afspejler interdependensens kontekstafhængige karakter, hvor strukturelle asymmetrier løbende mødes af institutionel tilpasning under systemiske chok.

This thesis examines how the European Union’s political and institutional approach to its oil dependence on OPEC evolved before and after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on theories of asymmetric and complex interdependence, it explains how geopolitical shocks can transform structural economic ties into politicized vulnerabilities. Methodologically, the study uses a time-oriented comparative case design covering the pre- and post-invasion periods and combines quantitative assessments of oil import channels and dependency with qualitative case studies of EU member states. The comparative analysis identifies shifting patterns in EU oil dependence and variations in vulnerabilities and exposures across states and institutions. The findings indicate that the EU’s dependence on OPEC strengthened as Russian oil imports were restricted, while institutional responses were reinforced through strategic reserves, collective measures, and energy dialogues with third parties. The thesis concludes that the EU’s response reflects the context-dependent nature of interdependence, with structural asymmetries being continually met by institutional adaptation under systemic shocks.

[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]

OPEC ; EU ; Oil ; Interdependens

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