Analysis of electric heat pumps in solar thermal district heating
Authors
Lebeck, Mie ; Madsen, Kristian Brun
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2016
Submitted on
2016-06-02
Pages
99
Abstract
Mange beslutningstagere vil udfase fossile brændsler og opbygge energisystemer baseret på vedvarende energi. Eldrevne varmepumper ses som en nøgleteknologi i fjernvarmen. Alligevel går udbredelsen langsomt, mens solvarme vinder frem, fordi de nuværende lovgivningsmæssige og økonomiske rammer begunstiger den. Dette studie undersøger, om solvarmens popularitet kan hæmme den ønskede udrulning af eldrevne varmepumper i fjernvarmesektoren. Vi modellerer et typisk fjernvarmeværk af den type, der overvejer investering i solvarme eller i eldrevne varmepumper. Med energisystemværktøjet energyPRO simulerer vi flere scenarier og beregner derefter investeringernes nutidsværdi (NPV) over 15 år. Vurderet hver for sig fremstår solvarme mere økonomisk attraktiv end en varmepumpe. Vi analyserer dernæst, om et fjernvarmeværk, der allerede har investeret i solvarme, bør supplere med en varmepumpe. For at teste robustheden laver vi følsomhedsanalyser, hvor vi varierer el- og gaspriser, varmepumpens varmekilder samt gældende skatter, tariffer og tilskud. Resultaterne viser, at en investering i solvarme markant svækker den økonomiske sag for efterfølgende at investere i en varmepumpe. Der er dog visse muligheder, især hvis varmepumpen fritages for PSO-tariffen (en elafgift til offentlige serviceforpligtelser).
Many policymakers aim to phase out fossil fuels and build energy systems based on renewables. Electric heat pumps are seen as a key technology for district heating. Yet deployment is currently slow, while solar thermal is expanding faster because current legal and economic conditions favor it. This study examines whether the current popularity of solar thermal could hinder the desired rollout of electric heat pumps in the district heating sector. We model a typical district heating plant of the kind that considers investing in solar thermal or in electric heat pumps. Using the energyPRO energy-system tool, we simulate multiple scenarios and then calculate the net present value (NPV) of each investment over a 15-year period. Assessed separately, solar thermal appears more economically attractive than a heat pump. We then evaluate whether a district heating plant that already invested in solar thermal should add a heat pump. To test robustness, we run sensitivity analyses that vary electricity and gas prices, the heat source for the heat pump, and existing taxes, tariffs, and subsidies. The results indicate that investing in solar thermal significantly weakens the business case for later investing in a heat pump. However, there is some potential under certain conditions—especially if the heat pump is exempt from the PSO (Public Service Obligation) electricity tariff.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
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