Analysing the effects on the All-island electricity system in 2020 if Ireland increases policy support for heat pumps
Author
Gaffney, Fiac Mark
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2014
Submitted on
2014-06-04
Pages
86
Abstract
Under EU’s klimaforpligtelser har Irland forpligtet sig til, at 16% af det samlede endelige energiforbrug i 2020 skal komme fra vedvarende kilder. Målet er fordelt på tre sektorer: transport, varme og elektricitet. Ligesom i flere andre medlemslande er el-sektoren godt på vej, mens transport og især varme halter efter. Dette studie undersøger en helhedsorienteret tilgang til at nå målene ved at koble el- og varmesektoren via varmepumper (el-drevne enheder, der leverer varme). For at dette kan lykkes, identificeres barrierer for teknologisk omstilling gennem en litteraturgennemgang, og der udvikles et teoretisk koncept og en ramme, der skal reducere barrierernes betydning for, hvor hurtigt ny teknologi tages i brug. Analysen kombinerer en forbrugervalgmodel for opvarmning, som vurderer forskellige niveauer af udbredelse af teknologier, med en detaljeret PLEXOS-simulering af el-systemet for hele øen for at belyse, hvordan ekstra elforbrug fra flere varmepumper påvirker elsystemet. Studiet peger på mindst tre gevinster ved at integrere varme og el: 1) mere vedvarende varme; 2) lavere udledninger fra sektorer uden for EU’s kvotehandelssystem (Non-ETS), som krævet af EU-politik; og 3) lettere integration af mere vedvarende elkapacitet i elsystemet.
Under European Union climate rules, Ireland has committed to getting 16% of its total final energy from renewable sources by 2020. The target is split across transport, heating, and electricity. As in many other member states, the electricity sector is on track, but transport and especially heating are lagging. This study examines a whole-system approach to meeting the targets by linking the electricity and heating sectors through heat pumps (electric devices that provide heat). To make this shift, we first identify barriers to technological change through a literature review, then propose a theoretical concept and framework to reduce these barriers and encourage uptake. We combine a consumer choice model of heating, which explores different levels of technology adoption, with a detailed PLEXOS simulation of the electricity system for the whole island to assess how extra electricity demand from more heat pumps would affect the power system. The study finds at least three benefits from integrating heat and power: 1) higher levels of renewable heat; 2) lower emissions from sectors outside the EU Emissions Trading System (Non-ETS), as required by EU policy; and 3) easier integration of additional renewable generation on the electricity grid.
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