A Stock Flow Consistent Empirical Model of the Danish Economy - An Analysis of the Danish Households Reaction to an Interest Rate Increase

Kiel, Frederik

4. term

Economics, Master

2018

2018-05-30

68

This thesis examines how the Danish economy—and especially households—would have reacted if interest rates, yields, and dividends had continued to rise after the financial crisis instead of falling, over 2009–2016. To address this, it develops and simulates a stock-flow consistent empirical model of Denmark with a Post-Keynesian foundation, covering five sectors, five interest rates, and four balance-sheet stocks. The model is subjected to a counterfactual interest rate shock that extends the pre-crisis upward trend in rates, and outcomes are compared with a baseline. The results indicate limited macroeconomic differences from the baseline for GDP, investment, and employment, while households would benefit from higher rates: they would borrow less and receive higher net interest income on their relatively large deposits and financial assets, raising disposable income and consumption. The thesis notes that the model is an early but comparatively detailed SFC framework for Denmark and that future work could refine behavioral equations and data details.

Specialet undersøger, hvordan den danske økonomi – og især husholdningerne – ville have reageret, hvis renter, afkast og udbytter var fortsat med at stige efter finanskrisen i stedet for at falde, i perioden 2009-2016. For at besvare dette spørgsmål opbygges og simuleres en stock-flow-konsistent, empirisk model af Danmark med post-keynesiansk udgangspunkt, der dækker fem sektorer, fem renter og fire beholdninger. Modellen udsættes for et modfaktisk rentestød, hvor den forudkrise tendens til stigende renter antages at fortsætte, og resultaterne sammenlignes med en baseline. Ifølge modellen ændres BNP, investering og beskæftigelse kun lidt i forhold til baseline, mens husholdningerne samlet set drager fordel af højere renter: de optager mindre gæld og opnår højere netto renteindtægter på deres relativt store indskud og finansielle aktiver, hvilket løfter den disponible indkomst og forbruget. Specialet fremhæver, at modellen er en tidlig, men relativt detaljeret SFC-ramme for Danmark, og at der er plads til forbedringer af både adfærdsrelationer og datagrundlag i fremtidigt arbejde.

[This apstract has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project full text]

SFC-modeller ; Økonomi ; Makroøkonomi ; Husholdningers Gæld ; Post-Keynsiansk Teori

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