A short pipeline, a big threat: Analyzing the reasons of Russia’s firm opposition to Trans-Caspian Pipeline

Pagotto, Giovanni

4. term

European Studies, Master

2002

2002-06-30

69

Denne afhandling undersøger, hvorfor Rusland bliver ved med at modsætte sig den EU-støttede transkaspiske gasrørledning, som skal indgå i EU’s Sydlige Gaskorridor. Rørledningen skal forbinde Turkmenistan – og muligvis andre store centralasiatiske producenter – med Aserbajdsjan, Georgien, Tyrkiet og til sidst EU’s slutforbrugere. Selvom Europas egen gasproduktion forventes at falde, vurderes en europæisk diversificering ikke at ramme russiske indtægter hårdt. Det peger på, at den russiske stat og eksportmonopolet Gazprom har yderligere interesser på spil. Studiet er udformet som et casestudie af aktørernes motiver og indbyrdes relationer, med fokus på Rusland (som afhandlingens perspektiv) og EU. Tredjeparter inddrages, når de påvirker forholdet eller hovedspørgsmålet. To forklaringsrammer anvendes: et markeds- og gensidig afhængighedsperspektiv og et geopolitisk realistisk perspektiv. Analysen finder en balanceret gensidig afhængighed mellem EU og Rusland i gasbutikket, som Rusland søger at bevare, fordi den giver fordele. EU forsøger derimod at ændre denne balance gennem diversificering, hvor Centralasien og den store Kaspiske Hav-region tillægges stor vægt på grund af betydelige gasressourcer. Den geopolitiske vinkel bekræfter også, at Rusland betragter Centralasien som en særlig interessesfære, som Kreml vil beskytte mod potentiel vestlig politisk (og muligvis militær) indflydelse, ikke mindst gennem multilaterale energisamarbejder. Det afspejler, hvor vigtig boreindustrien og distributionen af kulbrinter er for Centralasiens økonomier. Endelig peger afhandlingen på en tiltagende strategisk polarisering i internationale relationer: USA og EU på den ene side og Rusland og Kina på den anden, selv om Rusland og Kina stadig må afklare deres indbyrdes grænser i Centralasien. Den nuværende situation gør åben konflikt usandsynlig, men håndteringen af den Kaspiske Hav-region kan blive afgørende for, hvem der opnår en strategisk fordel, hvis tendensen fortsætter.

This thesis examines why Russia continues to oppose the EU-backed Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, a planned link in the EU’s Southern Gas Corridor. The pipeline would connect Turkmenistan—and potentially other major Central Asian producers—to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and ultimately EU end users. Although Europe’s domestic gas production is expected to decline, EU diversification is not expected to seriously damage Russia’s revenues. This suggests that the Russian government and Gazprom, its main exporter, have additional interests at stake. The research is structured as a case study of the actors’ motivations and relationships, focusing on Russia (the study’s primary perspective) and the EU, while considering third parties when they influence the main issue. Two explanatory lenses guide the analysis: a market and interdependence perspective, and a geopolitical realist perspective. Findings indicate a balanced interdependence between the EU and Russia in gas trade that Russia seeks to maintain because it is beneficial. The EU, by contrast, tries to alter this balance through diversification, placing Central Asia and the broader Caspian region at the center due to their significant gas resources. From the geopolitical angle, the study confirms that Russia views Central Asia as a “special sphere of interest” and aims to shield it from potential Western political (and possibly military) influence, including through multilateral energy-focused cooperation frameworks. This stance reflects the importance of drilling and hydrocarbon distribution to Central Asian economies. The study also notes a growing strategic polarization in international relations: a U.S.–EU alignment on one side and Russia with China on the other, even as Russia and China still need to define their respective boundaries of influence in Central Asia. While open conflict appears unlikely in the current setting, the management of the Caspian region could become decisive in conferring strategic advantage if this trend continues.

[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]

energy policy Russia EU pipelines Caspian Turkmenistan Uzbekistan energy security interdependence theory regimes spheres of influence offensive realism geopolitics

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