A scenario analysis of the decarbonisation of the Danish transport sector
Author
Kany, Mikkel Strunge
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2020
Submitted on
2020-06-04
Pages
89
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan den danske transportsektor kan bidrage til den nationale målsætning om 70 procent CO2-reduktion i 2030 og opnå CO2-neutralitet i 2050. Med udgangspunkt i EU’s “Avoid, Shift, Improve” (ASI) tilgang gennemføres en scenarieanalyse, der både adresserer teknologisk udvikling og planlægningsmæssige tiltag for at begrænse væksten i trafikarbejdet. To teknologiscenarier – et realistisk og et optimistisk – udformes på baggrund af forventninger til teknologiudvikling og markedsudbredelse, og suppleres af transportbehovsscenarier, hvor væksten i det årlige trafikarbejde halveres eller sættes til nul. Resultaterne viser, at de to teknologiscenarier kan reducere transportsektorens årlige CO2-udledning med henholdsvis 24 pct. og 45 pct. i 2030, og at begge kan nå CO2-neutralitet i 2050 gennem omfattende elektrificering og brug af elektrofuels. At sænke vækstraten for trafikarbejdet har en mindre effekt på det samlede energiforbrug og CO2-udledninger (op til 14 pct. lavere i 2030 og 4 pct. i 2050), men kan markant reducere de samlede årlige transportsystemomkostninger. Omstillingen forudsætter udbygning af vedvarende elproduktionskapacitet samt ændringer i infrastruktur og transportvaner for at understøtte et modal skift fra bil til kollektiv transport.
This thesis examines how the Danish transport sector can contribute to the national target of a 70 percent CO2 reduction by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Using the European Commission’s “Avoid, Shift, Improve” (ASI) framework, a scenario analysis addresses both technological development and planning measures to curb growth in traffic work. Two technology scenarios—a reasonable and an optimistic—are developed based on expectations for technology progress and market uptake, and are complemented by transport demand scenarios in which annual traffic work growth is halved or held at zero. The results indicate that the technology scenarios can reduce the sector’s annual CO2 emissions by 24 percent and 45 percent by 2030, respectively, and that both can reach carbon neutrality by 2050 through extensive electrification and the use of electrofuels. Reducing the growth rate of traffic work has a smaller effect on total energy use and emissions (up to a 14 percent reduction in 2030 and 4 percent in 2050) but can significantly lower total annual transport system costs. The transition will require expanded renewable electricity generation capacity and changes in infrastructure and travel behavior to support a modal shift from cars to public transport.
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