A return of Hostilities? Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Transformational Challenge and the Future of Sudan

Iyekolo, Wilfred Segun

4. term

Development and International Relations, Master

2011

2011-06-30

Siden uafhængigheden i 1956 har Sudan været præget af gentagne konflikter og kun korte perioder med ro. Mange spændinger udspringer af politiske og religiøse uenigheder samt langvarig marginalisering af dele af befolkningen, især den sydlige del af landet og andre mindretal. Mellem Machakos‑protokollen (2002) og den omfattende fredsaftale, Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA, 2005), blev der forhandlet våbenhvile og lagt en ramme for fred, herunder en folkeafstemning i januar 2011 om, hvorvidt det sydlige Sudan skulle blive selvstændigt. Tidlige rapporter tydede dengang på høj valgdeltagelse, som kunne opfylde 60%-kravet, hvilket gjorde løsrivelse sandsynlig. Denne afhandling spørger, om disse skridt kan afslutte Sudans konflikter, eller om nye former for ustabilitet kan følge. Den undersøger risikoen for genopblussen af vold, mulig opsplitning af landet og sandsynligheden for, at en ny stat hurtigt kan glide tilbage i konflikt. Det centrale spørgsmål er, hvorfor Sudans konfliktcyklus kan fortsætte på trods af CPA og folkeafstemningen.

Since independence in 1956, Sudan has seen frequent conflict with only brief periods of calm. Many tensions stem from political and religious divisions and long-standing marginalization of parts of the population, especially in the south and among other minority groups. Between the Machakos Protocol (2002) and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA, 2005), a ceasefire was negotiated and a framework for peace was set, including a referendum in January 2011 on whether Southern Sudan should become independent. Early reports at the time suggested high turnout that could meet the 60% threshold, making secession likely. This thesis asks whether these steps can end Sudan’s conflicts or whether new forms of instability may follow. It examines the risks of renewed violence, possible fragmentation of the country, and the likelihood that any new state could quickly slip back into conflict. The core question is why Sudan’s cycle of conflict may persist despite the CPA and the referendum.

[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]

Sudan, Comprehensive Peace Agreement, South Sudan Secession, Referendum ; Transformational Challenege, Social Identity Theory, Theory of Political Development ; Peace Agreement, Negotiations, Mediationalists, Mutual Vulnerability

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