A comparative case study of external actors' influence on the Yemeni civil war since 2014
Author
Løkken, Alexander
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-28
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan eksterne aktører har formet den yemenitiske borgerkrig siden 2014, med fokus på Saudi-Arabien og Iran og deres indbyrdes rivalisering. Med udgangspunkt i Jakob Tolstrups teori om “Black Knights”—oprindeligt udviklet til at forstå støtte til autoritære regimer i valgkontekster—anvendes en komparativ casestudie-tilgang kombineret med principper fra proces-tracing for at følge årsagssammenhænge i de to staters beslutninger og adfærd i Yemen. Teoriens mekanismer strækkes og tilpasses til konfliktens kontekst for at fortolke de observerbare former for politisk og militær støtte. Analysen peger på, at både Saudi-Arabien og Iran agerede som “black knights”: Saudisk indgriben forhindrede et fuldstændigt kollaps af den internationalt anerkendte regering, mens iransk støtte afbødede saudisk pres og muliggjorde Houthiernes fortsatte modstand. Den gensidige indblanding forlængede konflikten og øgede de civile omkostninger, uden at nogen af parterne opnåede deres fulde strategiske mål; dog fremstår Iran relativt styrket, i kraft af at Houthierne har bevaret kontrollen over Sana’a og øget deres kapacitet. Afhandlingen fremhæver, hvordan regional rivalisering kan forankre og omforme borgerkrige, og hvordan udviklingen i Yemen har skabt afledte regionale sikkerhedsdynamikker, herunder Houthiernes senere angreb mod amerikanske og israelske mål, samtidig med at de interne fronter i Yemen delvist er aftrappet.
This thesis examines how external actors have shaped the Yemeni civil war since 2014 by focusing on Saudi Arabia and Iran and their mutual rivalry. Drawing on Jakob Tolstrup’s “Black Knights” theory—originally developed to explain support for authoritarian regimes in electoral settings—the study applies a comparative case study design together with process-tracing principles to track causal links in the two states’ observable decisions and behavior in Yemen. The theory’s mechanisms are stretched and adapted to the conflict context to interpret forms of political and military support. The analysis finds that both Saudi Arabia and Iran acted as “black knights”: Saudi intervention prevented the internationally recognized government from collapsing, while Iranian backing offset Saudi pressure and enabled the Houthis to endure. Their mutual involvement prolonged the war and intensified civilian harm, while neither side fully achieved its strategic aims; however, Iran appears comparatively advantaged as the Houthis retained control of Sana’a and grew stronger. The study underscores how regional rivalry can entrench and reshape civil wars and how developments in Yemen produced broader regional security effects, including later Houthi strikes on U.S. and Israeli targets, even as domestic frontlines in Yemen partially de-escalated.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
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