Why and how the conception "Taiwan is the next after Ukraine" aroused?

Shi, Shengjie

2. Term (Master)

Chinese Area Studies (Minor subject)

2023

2023-05-10

52 pages

Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the conception “Taiwan is the next after Ukraine” has became very popular. This dissertation uses constructivism theories and methods to analyze the conception from the perspective of identity recognition and strategic narratives. In terms of identity, differences in identity perception among Taiwan, the United States, and mainland China have intensified in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Taiwan emphasized on “democratic state” identity and compared itself with Ukraine, believing that both are “the front of a democratic state threatened by authoritarianism.” The United States strengthens its identity as a “challenged power” and “protector” of Taiwan and regional order. From the perspective of strategic narrative, the United States is the main advocate of “Taiwan is the next after Ukraine”. The strategic aims contains: (1) deterring mainland China by showing Russia’s huge cost in the Ukraine war; (2) boosting the confidence of Asia-Pacific allies by “compensatory narratives”; (3) warning Taiwan authorities not to provoke the mainland and providing a moral excuse for the United States to increase arms sales to Taiwan. The popularity of “Taiwan is the next after Ukraine” also relies on US strategic agenda setting. The dissertation chose the case of visits of US officials of the Biden administration to Taiwan. The case shows that the Ukraine war has an important impact on US’s Taiwan policy. The text analysis shows that: (1) The Ukraine war has changed the U.S. strategic community’s prediction of the future of the global order and the East Asian order; (2) The war has prompted the U.S. Strengthen Taiwan’s “democratic nation” identity, emphasizing the differences in political identities between mainland China and Taiwan; (3) The United States has noticed the impact of war on the global supply chain, especially the semiconductor industry; (4) Although the United States is following the “Ukrainian model” anticipate and prepare for war, but focus more on “dual deterrence” and maintaining the status quo.

Taiwan issue ; Russia-Ukraine war ; Sino-US relationship

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