Transitional Justice and Democratic Resilience in Post-Communist EU Member States
Author
Rathkjen, David Victor
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Abstract
This thesis examines whether transitional justice helps create more resilient democracies, drawing on evidence from Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states. Many of these countries are experiencing democratic backsliding today—most notably Hungary and Poland, with Romania and Slovakia also affected. They share a distinctive trajectory: they were communist dictatorships until 1989 and, after 15–18 years of democratization, joined the EU. As part of that transition, CEE states adopted varying degrees of transitional justice—legal and institutional measures to address past abuses and power structures—to reduce the risk of a return to authoritarianism. The thesis asks whether the conditions for democratic resilience or backsliding were largely set during the 1989–2004 consolidation period before EU membership. It explores this question using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), a method that compares cases to identify which conditions are necessary for a given outcome. It tests factors such as the level of transitional justice, corruption, and political polarization for their necessity in achieving liberal democracy. The QCA is followed by a comparative case study of five CEE countries to examine the role of transitional justice in practice. The analysis finds that transitional justice can strengthen democratic resilience, but only when measures are broad in scope. It also shows that starting these measures early in the democratization process is crucial. Delays allow networks from the former regime to hide within new institutions and engage in institutional mimicry—appearing democratic without real change—leaving weaknesses that can later be exploited under authoritarian pressure. The thesis also considers alternative explanations. It finds that the ideology of the first democratic governments and historical legacies matter: center-right governments and a legacy of pre-communist democracy supported consolidation in the Czech Republic and the Baltic states.
Denne specialeundersøgelse spørger, om overgangsretfærdighed skaber mere robuste demokratier, med udgangspunkt i empiriske erfaringer fra EU’s medlemsstater i Central- og Østeuropa (CEE). Mange af disse lande oplever i dag demokratisk tilbagegang – mest markant i Ungarn og Polen, men også i Rumænien og Slovakiet. De deler en særegen historie: indtil 1989 var de kommunistiske diktaturer, og efter 15–18 års demokratisering blev de optaget i EU. Som led i deres demokratisering indførte CEE-landene i varierende grad overgangsretfærdighed – juridiske og institutionelle tiltag, der håndterer fortidens overgreb og magtstrukturer – for at mindske risikoen for et autoritært tilbageslag. Specialet undersøger, om betingelserne for demokratisk robusthed eller tilbagegang i høj grad blev lagt i konsolideringsperioden 1989–2004, før EU-medlemskabet. Det gør det gennem en kvalitativ komparativ analyse (QCA), en metode der sammenligner lande for at identificere, hvilke betingelser der er nødvendige for et givent udfald. Her testes faktorer som omfanget af overgangsretfærdighed, niveauet af korruption og politisk polarisering for deres nødvendighed i opnåelsen af liberalt demokrati. QCA’en suppleres af et komparativt casestudie af fem CEE-lande for at undersøge overgangsretfærdighedens rolle i praksis. Analysen viser, at overgangsretfærdighed kan gøre demokratier mere modstandsdygtige, men kun når tiltagene er brede i deres rækkevidde. Et tidligt starttidspunkt i demokratiseringsprocessen er desuden afgørende. Forsinkelser giver den tidligere regimes netværk mulighed for at skjule sig i nye institutioner og bedrive institutionel mimik – at fremstå demokratisk uden reel forandring – hvilket efterlader svagheder, der senere kan udnyttes under autoritært pres. Specialet ser også på alternative forklaringer. Det finder, at regeringsideologien ved demokratiets begyndelse og historiske arv spiller en rolle: centrum-højre regeringer og arven fra en før-kommunistisk demokratisk tradition bidrog til konsolideringen i Tjekkiet og i Baltikum.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]