The Effect of Distributed Wind Production on the Necessary System Flexibility: In Germany in the Year 2030
Author
Wimmer, Damian Oliver
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2014
Submitted on
2014-06-06
Pages
92
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan placeringen af vindmøller på tværs af Tyskland påvirker, hvor meget og hvilken type fleksibilitet det fremtidige elsystem har brug for. Spørgsmålet besvares i fire trin ved brug af et geografisk informationssystem (GIS) og en Excel-model. For det første identificeres de arealer, hvor vindmøller kan opstilles uden at konflikte med andre interesser. For det andet opstilles to fordelingsscenarier: et "bedste vind"-scenarie og et jævnt fordelingsscenarie. For det tredje beregnes produktionsprofiler for begge scenarier med to mølletyper og 70 vindprofiler fra hele Tyskland. For det fjerde beregnes restlasten (elforbrug minus den producerede vindkraft), og det analyseres, hvilken fleksibilitet elsystemet kræver, både i kapacitet (hvor meget der skal kunne reguleres) og i karakteristik (hvor hurtigt det skal kunne ændre sig). Resultaterne viser, at den højere installerede kapacitet i det jævne fordelingsscenarie vejer tungere end den udglattende effekt af en fordelt mølleplacering. Restlastkurven i det jævne fordelingsscenarie er dog glattere, hvilket giver lavere fleksibilitetsgradienter (mindre krav til hurtige op- og nedreguleringer), men den nødvendige fleksibilitetskapacitet er den samme som i "bedste vind"-scenariet.
This study examines how the geographic placement of wind turbines across Germany influences the amount and type of flexibility the future electricity system will need. We address this in four steps using a geographic information system (GIS) and an Excel-based model. First, we identify areas where turbines can be installed without conflicting with other interests. Second, we define two distribution scenarios: a best-wind-sites scenario and an even-distribution scenario. Third, we calculate generation profiles for both scenarios using two turbine types and 70 wind profiles from across Germany. Fourth, we compute the residual load (electricity demand minus wind generation) and analyze the system’s flexibility needs by capacity (how much other resources must ramp up or down) and by characteristics (how fast they must respond). We find that the higher installed capacity in the even-distribution scenario outweighs the smoothing effect of distributed turbine placement. The residual load curve in the even-distribution scenario is smoother, which reduces flexibility gradients (the speed of ramping), but the required flexibility capacity remains the same as in the best-wind-sites scenario.
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