Syrian civil war and the challenges to a negotiated agreement
Author
Siticov, Alexandra-Cristina
Term
4. term
Publication year
2014
Submitted on
2014-06-02
Abstract
I maj 2014 trak FN’s Syrien-udsending sig, efter at det ikke lykkedes ham at få præsident Bashar al-Assad og den Syriske Nationale Koalition til en aftale. Der havde allerede været to forhandlingsrunder, en tredje var på vej, men der kom ingen enighed. Dette speciale undersøger, hvorfor en politisk løsning er så vanskelig, hvorfor forhandlingerne går i stå, og hvad der spænder ben for en fredelig afslutning. For at besvare spørgsmålene bruger studiet tre kendte tilgange til konfliktløsning forbundet med Barbara Walter, Zartman og Cuningham. Med dokumentarisk research og sekundære kilder (bøger, akademiske artikler og journalistik) ser det både på krigens interne dynamikker og på de ydre aktørers rolle. Analysen peger på en række barrierer, der gør en forhandlet fred usandsynlig. For det første forpligtelsesproblemer: parterne stoler ikke på, at løfter vil blive overholdt eller håndhævet efter en aftale. For det andet mange veto-spillere: talrige bevæbnede og politiske aktører kan blokere kompromiser. For det tredje mangler der et gensidigt smertefuldt dødvande: ingen af siderne oplever samtidig tilstrækkeligt pres og omkostninger til at ville give indrømmelser. For det fjerde en stærkt fragmenteret opposition, der har svært ved at koordinere og tale med én stemme. Endelig international uenighed, hvor eksterne støtter bakker forskellige fraktioner og mål. Samlet skaber disse forhold en uheldig konfiguration for vellykket mægling og forklarer, hvorfor forhandlinger gentagne gange er brudt sammen.
In May 2014, the UN’s envoy for Syria resigned after failing to broker an agreement between President Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian National Coalition. Two rounds of talks had already taken place, a third was planned, but no consensus emerged. This thesis asks why it is so difficult to reach a political solution, why negotiations stall, and what prevents a peaceful settlement. To answer these questions, the study applies three conflict resolution perspectives associated with Barbara Walter, Zartman, and Cuningham. Using documentary and secondary sources (books, academic articles, and journalism), it examines both the internal dynamics of the Syrian war and the role of external actors. The analysis identifies several barriers that make a negotiated peace unlikely. First, commitment problems: the sides do not trust that promises will be kept or enforced after a deal. Second, multiple veto players: numerous armed and political actors can block compromises. Third, the absence of a mutually hurting stalemate: neither side faces enough simultaneous pressure and costs to make concessions. Fourth, a highly fragmented opposition that struggles to coordinate and speak with one voice. Finally, international discord, with outside patrons backing different factions and goals. Together, these factors create a poor configuration for successful mediation and help explain why talks have repeatedly failed.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]