• Tom Andersen
4. term, Risk and Safety Management, Candidate (Master Programme)
This research investigates economic strategies to boost the resilience of TREFOR utility company's water supply system in Middelfart, focusing on key critical components. The study extensively evaluates two principal models: the probabilistic resilience model and a renewal model.
The probabilistic resilience model is demonstrated as an effective tool for identifying potential failure scenarios in utility infrastructure, particularly addressing internal degradation processes in system components like pumps and valves. However, the study also acknowledges that the model's utility could be significantly expanded through future research integrating considerations of external hazards, thus providing a more comprehensive and robust strategy for system resilience.
On the other hand, the renewal model's strength lies in its ability to examine and assess various renewal strategies and their respective temporal economic implications. It offers predictive capabilities that present a depiction of the future state of the water supply system and the financial resources necessary for sustained resilience.
Despite annual cost variations across different renewal strategies, the study uncovers practical economic thresholds that can guide TREFOR in their decision-making processes. However, it also highlights potential inaccuracies in the model due to variable lengths of pipe segments selected for renewal.
The research recommends that TREFOR should ideally combine both models to optimally improve their system's resilience. However, the need for further exploration and refinement of these models is highlighted, including the integration of external hazards and a more in-depth investigation of model assumptions, to improve predictive accuracy and support more comprehensive strategic decisions.
Unfortunately, the study was somewhat hampered by incomplete data on economic consequences. Nevertheless, assumptions based on discussions with TREFOR, along with insights into the current rate of pipe degradation and burst data, proved valuable for understanding system risks.
In conclusion, this research emphasizes the utility of both the probabilistic resilience model and the renewal model in enhancing the resilience of TREFOR's water supply system in Middelfart. Despite some data limitations, it delivers insights about system degradation, risk types, and response times to failure events, all of which can help inform strategic decision-making.
Overall, the research illustrates a pathway towards creating more resilient utility infrastructures grounded in solid economic rationale, while also underlining the importance of continuous research and refinement of these models.
Publication date1 Jun 2023
Number of pages67
External collaboratorTREFOR Water
Asset Manager Anders Juul agj@trefor.dk
Envidan A/S
Markedschef Teis Hindsig tfn@envidan.dk
ID: 532506355