A major transition of the Danish energy system is a broad political goal, across political parties in Denmark and has been for decades. Constituting a major part of the final energy consumption, the domestic heating sector has traditionally played an important role in the transition of the energy sector. An important measure for reducing final energy consumption for heating is found in the deployment of district heating systems, due to the economy of scale and higher efficiencies, compared to individual systems.

The following transition of the energy sector calls for new measures, where the concept of strategic energy planning has been introduced in Denmark. The concept aims at utilizing the planning abilities and power that municipalities have shown in the transition so far, through their role in the deployment of district heating. As district heating systems have natural boundaries, regarding the applicability in areas with sparse heat density, a success of these new strategic energy plans is assessed to call for new measures within domestic heating, i.e. an increased focus on the areas outside the areas that are supplied by natural gas or district heating, known as “Area IV” in the Danish heating planning.

This results in the following research question for this Master Thesis-report:

How can Danish municipalities contribute to the deployment of individual, electrical driven heat pumps in the domestic heating sector, in Area IV?

The theoretical framework for this thesis is based on an understanding of the building owner/consumer, having the decision-making authority regarding the heating installation of his/her building, while being influenced by a group of actors. The actors, having an influence are identified being: the government, banks, energy counsellors, salesmen of heating installations and friends and family. The influence of municipalities is assessed to be existing, but is to be investigated throughout the project.

This research question is addressed through a case study, focusing on Area IV in Mariagerfjord Kommune, a municipality in the southern part of Northern Jutland. The energy planning in Mariagerfjord Kommune is managed by a climate strategy from 2011 that has resulted in multiple initiatives. Examples of these are the municipality’s involvement in several networks of municipalities for energy planning and a recent project, where citizens are offered an energy screening of their building, in order to determine the possible effects and potentials of energy efficiency measures in Area IV.

The case study involves technical and economic assessments of an example building that is found to meet the average details of the existing building mass, which is a detached house with a floor area of 165 m^{2, built in the 1930’s and heated by an oil boiler. Analyses of this building show socioeconomic advantages of individual heat pumps, while wood pellet boilers show to be the private economic best solution. This indicates issues in the taxation system, as the socioeconomic advantages do not motivate the potential users in terms of private economics. Furthermore the analysis shows that energy refurbishment with the applied conditions do not result in socioeconomic advantages. Refurbishment is still considered a viable option, considering the related advantages (better indoor climate and comfort levels).}

Additionally, three households are interviewed, in order to cover the motives for energy conservation and regarding their possibility to invest in a heat pump. All households have participated in the free energy guidance project as described previously and the analysis shows that their key motives are to be found in the private economic effects of a given alternative and the comfort it results in for the user.

With the technical and economic potentials, as well as user preferences, covered, the possibilities for the municipality are investigated. A full transition towards heat pumps, including a moderate rate of energy refurbishments, results in a reduction of 80 % of the final energy consumption for domestic heating in Area IV. This corresponds to a reduction of the final energy consumption in Mariagerfjord Kommune of 1.7 %, compared to 2010. A major effect for the strategic energy planning in this is found to be the change of fuel, where oil and solid biomass are substituted by electricity, being the only energy source (apart from ambient heat) that is utilized in the future domestic heating in Area IV. This effect is simultaneously assessed to be a key in the strategic element of the planning of Area IV, as it calls for a combination of the electricity and domestic heating sector; Two sectors that have been planned for separately in traditional energy planning.

Danish municipalities’ work must not conflict with commercial interests and keep a status quo in the balance between the public and commercial sectors, unless warranted differently by law. Furthermore, municipalities are allowed to get involved with work that is assessed to meet the principle of justice “Municipal Warrant” (Kommunalfuldmagten). This principle consists of several sub-principles that e.g. prohibit municipal activity to favor individual persons or companies and measures that are economically unreasonable. Furthermore, all municipal activity must be motivated by a common interest of the municipality and its citizens. Hence there is not found legal arguments against municipal energy planners working on strategic energy plans per se, whilst subsidy schemes etc. are assessed to favor the building owner concerned.

Danish municipalities’ possibilities are hence found in facilitating networks (e.g. public private partnerships) and information campaigns in order to motivate private households to replace their existing boilers with a heat pump and energy refurbishments. In these measures it is assessed critical for success to keep an impartial actor, e.g. an energy consultancy or the municipality itself, in order to protect the consumers against purely economically motivated measures and project proposals.