Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting: Developing a new forecasting model based on high order fuzzy time series
Student thesis: Master Thesis and HD Thesis
- Jens Rúni Poulsen
4. term, Software Development, Master (Master Programme)
Numerous Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) models have been proposed in scientific literature
during the past decades or so. Among the most accurate FTS models found in literature are the
high order models. However, three fundamental issues need to be resolved with regards to the
high order models. First, current prediction methods have not been able to provide satisfactory
accuracy rates for defuzzified outputs (forecasts). Second, data becomes underutilized as the
order increases. Third, forecast accuracy is sensitive to selected interval partitions.
To cope with these issues, a new high order FTS model is proposed in this thesis. The
proposed model utilizes aggregation and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to reduce the
mismatch between forecasts and actuals. Comparative experiments confirm the proposed
model's ability to provide higher accuracy rates than the current results reported in the
literature. Moreover, the utilization of aggregation and PSO, to individually tune forecast rules,
ensures consistency between defuzzified outputs and actual outputs, regardless of selected
interval partitions. As a consequence of employing these techniques, data utilization is
improved by: (1) minimizing the loss of forecast rules; (2) minimizing the number of pattern
combinations to be matched with future time series data.
Finally, a fuzzification algorithm, based on the trapezoid fuzzification approach, has been
developed as a byproduct. The proposed algorithm objectively partitions the universe of
discourse into intervals without requiring any user defined parameters.
Language | English |
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Publication date | 2009 |
Number of pages | 67 |
Publishing institution | AAUE |