Analysis of a schedule for a project - Simulation and risk management

Student thesis: Master thesis (including HD thesis)

  • Nete Bjerregaard
  • Tenna Hovedskou Andersen
4. term, Mathematics-Economics, Master (Master Programme)
This master thesis is about scheduling projects and which challenges a company faces when trying to keep a schedule. \\
The basis for the thesis is the thesis group's wonderment, that risk management combined with simulation is not more widely used for scheduling projects. In the literature these two areas are not as merged as expected. This made the thesis group wanting to connect scheduling and risk management with simulation. The thesis group wanted to study which factors affected the schedule for the project. Some of these factors are the risk factors identified in the article Factors Affecting Schedule Delay, Cost Overrun and Quality Level in Public Construction Projects [Larsen et al., 2015a], which affect the time aspect of a project. The thesis is delimited to analyse this aspect, and not the two other corners from the project "iron triangle", budget and quality.
In order to make these analyses the thesis group got data from a reconstruction project from Forsvarsministeriets Ejendomsstyrelse. Because of the uniqueness of a project the amount of data is limited, and therefore makes a normal data analysis impossible. On that basis the input to the simulation model is based on expert knowledge and received schedule.
The thesis group chose to use ARENA, as the simulation software, where a model were constructed to reflect the reality, as good as possible. From the constructed model the total duration of the project, and each process' duration were calculated and commented. Based on literature, the risk factors, and common sense a series of scenarios have been constructed, in order to discover how these different changes affect the durations.
The conclusion based on these scenarios are that the companies should focus on the processes at the critical path(s) in the project. If the company is able to reduce the variance of processes on this path, it will have a positive impact on the total duration.
LanguageDanish
Publication date1 Jun 2016
Number of pages59
External collaboratorForsvarsministeriets Ejendomsstyrelse
Henrik Sørensen hensor@mil.dk
Client
ID: 234426512