Assessing the number of goals in soccer matches

Studenteropgave: Kandidatspeciale og HD afgangsprojekt

  • Rasmus Olesen
2. semester, Datalogi, Kandidat (Kandidatuddannelse)
This project proposes a number of models, for assessing the number of goals scored in a soccer match. The motivation lies in the challenge of au- tomatizing the task of setting odds for certain type of goal bets in soc- cer betting. The models proposed uses historic result data solely, each in its own way, to assess the probabilities for the number of goals. The models use empirical probability, Poisson dis- tributions and the concepts of offnsive strength and defensive weakness. Each of the proposed assessors are measured with each other and compared to the assessments made by actual bookmak- ers. The evaluation is based on hypoth- esis testing using scoring rules. The re- sults of this report conclude that, it is very dicult to create automatic prob- ability assessors which can outperform the bookmakers. However it is possi- ble, through rather simple methods, to create assessments which are very close to those of the bookmakers.
Antal sider75
Udgivende institutionAalborg Universitet
ID: 14466579