Assessing the number of goals in soccer matches
Studenteropgave: Kandidatspeciale og HD afgangsprojekt
- Rasmus Olesen
2. semester, Datalogi, Kandidat (Kandidatuddannelse)
This project proposes a number of
models, for assessing the number of
goals scored in a soccer match. The
motivation lies in the challenge of au-
tomatizing the task of setting odds
for certain type of goal bets in soc-
cer betting. The models proposed uses
historic result data solely, each in its
own way, to assess the probabilities
for the number of goals. The models
use empirical probability, Poisson dis-
tributions and the concepts of offnsive
strength and defensive weakness. Each
of the proposed assessors are measured
with each other and compared to the
assessments made by actual bookmak-
ers. The evaluation is based on hypoth-
esis testing using scoring rules. The re-
sults of this report conclude that, it is
very dicult to create automatic prob-
ability assessors which can outperform
the bookmakers. However it is possi-
ble, through rather simple methods, to
create assessments which are very close
to those of the bookmakers.
Sprog | Engelsk |
---|---|
Udgivelsesdato | 2008 |
Antal sider | 75 |
Udgivende institution | Aalborg Universitet |