Energy Geopolitics: A Comparative Case Study on the EU-Russia competition in the Egyptian Energy Sector
Author
Zsámboki, Anna Róza
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-27
Pages
55
Abstract
I en tid med global rivalisering er energidiplomati blevet et centralt udenrigspolitisk redskab. Egypten udvikler sig til et energiknudepunkt i det østlige Middelhav, strategisk placeret mellem Europa, Afrika og Mellemøsten. Det har tiltrukket både EU og Rusland som investorer og geopolitiske aktører. Hvor meget forskning har fokuseret på deres direkte rivalisering, undersøger denne afhandling deres indirekte konkurrence i en tredjeparts energisektor: Egypten. Spørgsmålet er, hvordan EU’s og Ruslands geopolitiske og strategiske motiver afspejles i deres tilgang til den egyptiske energisektor. Analysen kombinerer Regional Security Complex Theory, som ser på, hvordan sikkerhedsdynamikker opstår i regionale klynger af stater, med Energy Transition Theory, der omhandler skiftet fra fossile brændsler til lavemissionsenergi. Denne ramme gør det muligt både at belyse regionale politiske implikationer og de globale omstillingsdynamikker, der præger EU‑Rusland‑opgøret i Egypten. Metodisk anvendes et kvalitativt, komparativt casestudie baseret på gennemgang af politiske dokumenter, officielle udtalelser, nyhedsdækning og troværdige akademiske kilder. Egypten er valgt på grund af sin fremtrædende plads i EU’s og Ruslands udenrigspolitik, nye naturgasfund og et anerkendt potentiale for grønt brint. Resultaterne viser, at begge parter søger større indflydelse gennem engagement i Egyptens energimarked, men med forskellige strategier. EU lægger vægt på omstillingen til vedvarende energi og på regulatorisk og normativ harmonisering – dvs. tilpasning af regler og standarder – hvilket peger på et bredere mål om at integrere Egypten i EU’s energimarked som leverandør af vedvarende energi. Ved at investere tidligt i landets grønne omstilling søger EU at skabe et asymmetrisk forhold til Cairo, der kan give mere fordelagtige aftaler om energiforsyning fremover, samtidig med at det understøtter målet om at udfase russiske energiimporter og styrke energisikkerheden. Rusland prioriterer derimod store infrastrukturprojekter med atomkraft som hovedspor. Moskva sigter mod stabile, langsigtede eksportmarkeder i Egypten. Med en 60‑årig kontrakt om levering af atombrændsel til El Dabaa‑værket og eksport af russisk teknologi via det statsejede Rosatom sikrer Rusland varige markeder, diversificerer væk fra EU efter Europas fravalg af russisk energi og bevarer sin position på de globale energimarkeder som en leder inden for atomenergi. Afhandlingen bidrager til at forstå, hvordan energidiplomati former regional geopolitik, og giver indblik i stormagtskonkurrence i mindre udforskede kontekster som Egypten.
As global competition intensifies, energy diplomacy has become a key foreign policy tool. Egypt is emerging as an energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean, strategically linking Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. This has drawn in both the EU and Russia as investors and geopolitical players. While much research examines their direct rivalry, this thesis looks at their indirect competition in a third country’s energy sector: Egypt. It asks how the EU’s and Russia’s geopolitical and strategic motivations are reflected in their respective approaches to Egypt’s energy sector. The study combines Regional Security Complex Theory—which examines how security dynamics form within regional clusters of states—with Energy Transition Theory, focused on the shift from fossil fuels to lower‑emission energy. This framework captures both the regional political implications and the global transition dynamics shaping the EU–Russia standoff in Egypt. Methodologically, it uses a qualitative, comparative case study based on a review of policy documents, official statements, news reporting, and trustworthy academic sources. Egypt was selected because of its prominence on EU and Russian foreign policy agendas, its new natural gas discoveries, and its recognized potential for green hydrogen. Findings show that both actors seek greater influence through engagement in Egypt’s energy market, but they pursue different strategies. The EU prioritizes a shift to renewable energy and regulatory and normative alignment—that is, aligning rules and standards—pointing to a broader goal of integrating Egypt into the EU energy market as a supplier of renewables. By investing early in Egypt’s green transition, the EU aims to create an asymmetrical relationship with Cairo that yields more favorable energy supply terms in the future, while also supporting its goal of eliminating Russian energy imports and enhancing energy security. Russia, in contrast, focuses on large‑scale infrastructure with nuclear power as the main path. Moscow seeks stable, long‑term export outlets in Egypt. Through a 60‑year nuclear fuel contract for the El Dabaa plant and by exporting technology via the state‑owned company Rosatom, Russia secures durable markets, diversifies away from the EU after Europe’s turn from Russian energy, and maintains its position in global energy markets as a leader in nuclear energy and related technologies. The thesis shows how energy diplomacy shapes regional geopolitics and sheds light on great‑power competition in under‑researched contexts such as Egypt.
[This summary has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]
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