En samfundsøkonomisk analyse af den forhøjede NOx-afgift

A socio-economic analysis of the increased tax on NOx-emission

Bengtsen, Thomas Vestergaard

4. semester

Økonomi (cand.oecon), Kandidat

2012

2012-12-10

84

Specialet undersøger de samfundsøkonomiske konsekvenser af at hæve den danske afgift på udledning af kvælstofoxider (NOx) fra stationær forbrænding. Det foreslår desuden et alternativt afgiftssystem med refusion (REP), hvor virksomheder får penge tilbage afhængigt af, hvordan deres NOx-udledning står i forhold til deres andel af den samlede energiproduktion/-anvendelse. Formålet er at skabe et tydeligt økonomisk incitament til at investere i teknologi, der reducerer NOx. REP-modellen kombineres med målrettet offentlig støtte til forskning og udvikling i NOx-reduktion. De to afgiftstyper vurderes via en velfærdsøkonomisk cost-benefit-analyse, cases fra relevante producenter og en vurdering af potentialet for at udvikle en dansk miljøteknologi-industri baseret på NOx-løsninger gennem offentligt-privat samarbejde. Cost-benefit-analysen peger på, at hvis Danmark indfører en NOx-afgift uden at nabolandene gør det samme, kan de forventede velfærdsgevinster udeblive, uanset hvordan afgiften indrettes. Analysen fokuserer på sundhedseffekterne ved lavere NOx, men medtager ikke tab af dansk konkurrenceevne, selv om det bør indgå i en fuld samfundsøkonomisk vurdering. Casene viser, at energiintensive producenter vil opleve faldende konkurrenceevne, men at den alternative afgift med refusion vil dæmpe tabet. Konkurrenceevne bør vurderes både på sektorniveau og nationalt, da tab i én sektor kan opvejes af gevinster i en anden. På denne baggrund analyserer specialet potentialet for at udvikle en dansk industri med fokus på NOx-reduktion gennem offentligt-privat samarbejde, hvis den alternative afgift implementeres. Hovedkonklusionen er, at der er et betydeligt samfundsøkonomisk potentiale i NOx-reduktion, hvis den alternative model gennemføres. For at maksimere velfærdsgevinsterne, begrænse tab af konkurrenceevne og understøtte en dansk NOx-industri kræves politisk handling. Politikerne bør arbejde for ambitiøse internationale NOx-reduktioner, fx i EU, for at sikre danske velfærdsgevinster og eksportmuligheder for virksomheder med kompetencer inden for NOx-reduktion.

This thesis examines the socio-economic consequences of increasing Denmark’s tax on nitrogen oxides (NOx) emitted from stationary combustion. It also proposes an alternative refunded payment (REP) tax design, where companies receive money back depending on how their NOx emissions compare to their share of total energy production/use. The goal is to maintain a clear financial incentive to invest in NOx-reducing technologies. The REP approach is paired with targeted public support for research and development related to NOx reduction. The two tax models are assessed through a welfare-economic cost-benefit analysis, case studies of relevant producers, and an evaluation of the potential to build a Danish environmental technology industry around NOx-reduction solutions through public–private cooperation. The cost-benefit analysis indicates that if Denmark introduces a NOx tax while neighboring countries do not, the expected welfare gains may be missed regardless of the tax design. The analysis emphasizes health benefits from lower NOx but does not include losses in Danish competitiveness, even though they should be part of a full socio-economic assessment. The case studies suggest that energy-intensive producers would face reduced competitiveness, although the REP model would lessen this loss. Competitiveness should be assessed at both sector and national levels, since losses in one sector can be offset by gains in another. Based on this, the thesis analyzes how the alternative REP model could support the development of a Danish industry focused on NOx reduction through public–private partnerships. The main conclusion is that there is substantial socio-economic potential in NOx reduction if the alternative model is implemented. To maximize welfare gains, limit competitiveness losses, and foster a Danish NOx-reduction industry, political action is needed. Policymakers should pursue ambitious international NOx reductions, for example within the EU, to secure Denmark’s welfare benefits and the export opportunities of companies with NOx-reduction expertise.

[Dette resumé er genereret ved hjælp af AI]

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