Efficiency of Emergency Response System in the Arctic: A Cruise Ship Perspective
Author
Fazal, Hafiza Saima
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-06-02
Pages
75
Abstract
As the Arctic becomes more accessible due to climate change, more cruise ships are entering remote, high-risk waters where help is far away. This study examines how prepared ships are for evacuations and how feasible search and rescue (SAR) operations are in this region. The study combines a review of safety regulations with computer simulations that model how passengers and crew move during an evacuation. The simulations are agent-based (they represent the actions of many individuals) and use the Pathfinder tool. Scenarios included both normal exit routes and cases where corridors and exits were blocked. Results show that even moderate disruptions significantly increase evacuation times, walking distances, and delays in crew response. The model’s credibility was checked against a real incident on the cruise ship Le Boréal. A combined assessment of SAR capacities in Norway, Iceland, and Greenland indicates that, without air rescue, a coordinated sea-based operation using Norwegian vessels could evacuate all passengers in about 30.5 hours. If countries act independently, it could take 9.6–14.6 days. This highlights the critical need for multinational cooperation during Arctic emergencies. To address system-wide interdependencies, the study introduces a planning framework based on the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which helps map how connected activities influence each other under stress. Key recommendations are to revisit assumptions about survival times in Arctic conditions, strengthen joint cross-border training, and adopt more inclusive planning that accounts for diverse passenger needs. Future work should incorporate real incident data and include passengers with limited mobility in simulations to improve realism.
Efterhånden som klimaforandringer gør Arktis mere tilgængeligt, sejler flere krydstogtskibe i fjerntliggende og risikofyldte farvande, hvor hjælp er langt væk. Dette studie vurderer, hvor godt skibe er forberedt på evakuering, og hvor realistisk søge- og redningsindsatser (SAR) er i regionen. Studiet kombinerer en gennemgang af sikkerhedsregler med computersimulationer, der modellerer, hvordan passagerer og besætning bevæger sig under en evakuering. Simulationerne er agentbaserede (de simulerer mange individers adfærd) og er lavet i værktøjet Pathfinder. Der er testet både scenarier med normale udgangsveje og scenarier, hvor flugtveje er blokeret. Resultaterne viser, at selv moderate forstyrrelser markant øger evakueringstiden, gangdistancerne og forsinker besætningens respons. Modellen blev sammenholdt med en virkelig hændelse på krydstogtskibet Le Boréal for at afprøve dens troværdighed. En samlet vurdering af SAR-kapaciteter i Norge, Island og Grønland viser, at uden luftredning kan en koordineret, søbaseret indsats med norske fartøjer evakuere alle passagerer på cirka 30,5 timer. Hvis hvert land handler for sig, kan det tage 9,6–14,6 dage. Det understreger, hvor afgørende multinationalt samarbejde er ved nødsituationer i Arktis. For at håndtere komplekse afhængigheder i systemet introducerer studiet et planlægningsrammeværk baseret på Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), som hjælper med at forstå, hvordan sammenhængende aktiviteter påvirker hinanden under pres. De vigtigste anbefalinger er at revidere antagelser om overlevelsestid i arktiske forhold, styrke fælles øvelser på tværs af lande og indføre mere inkluderende planlægning, der tager højde for forskellige passagerbehov. Fremtidig forskning bør inddrage data fra virkelige hændelser og medtage passagerer med nedsat mobilitet i simulationerne for at øge realismen.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]
Keywords
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