Giver Den Grønne Trepart røde tal: En analyse af trepartens effekt på landbrugsregnskabet
Oversat titel
Does The Green Triparty Agreement make the accounts go in the red
Forfatter
Semester
4. semester
Uddannelse
Udgivelsesår
2025
Afleveret
2025-12-10
Antal sider
34
Abstract
This study analyses the economic impact on Danish farms of the Green Triparty Agreement’s withdrawal of 140,000 hectares of lowland soils. As these areas are removed from production for climate purposes, the paper investigates how such land-use changes affect key financial out-comes and which types of farms are most exposed. The study combines policy review with a quantitative case analysis of a West Jutland dairy farm operating 400 hectares. Local planning identifies 70 hectares as potential withdrawal area, and the financial effects are estimated by adjusting the farm’s 2024 income statement and balance sheet. Changes in output, feed costs, land values and financial ratios are assessed using the DuPont framework. The results show that land withdrawal has significant economic consequences. Reduced forage production increases feed purchases, lowers the gross margin and reduces profit before tax by 53.5%. On the balance sheet, the loss of land value decreases equity by 26.8%, weakening sol-vency and increasing financial risk. The farm’s financial indicators shift from upper to lower national quartiles, though profitability remains positive. The study concludes that land withdrawal can materially affect earnings, asset structure and financial strength, especially for land-dependent livestock farms. Impacts vary geographically, requiring farmers to assess exposure and adjust production or land portfolios. Adequate com-pensation schemes are essential to uphold the voluntary basis of the agreement.