Disinformation as a form of hybrid warfare: How has the Russian disinformation strategy against the USA evolved since the Cold War?
Translated title
Disinformation as a form of hybrid warfare
Author
Horliukova, Anastasiia
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-28
Pages
71
Abstract
This thesis examines how Russia’s disinformation strategy against the United States has evolved since 1991 as part of a broader hybrid warfare approach—a mix of political, economic, military, and especially informational tools. It applies a neoclassical realist lens, which links domestic politics and leaders’ perceptions to international power and system pressures, to explain why and how Russia chooses specific influence methods. A core claim is that foreign policy is best understood by connecting domestic variables with external pressures. The research uses a longitudinal single-case design that traces three periods from 1991 to the present. Each period is analyzed through three components: (1) domestic dynamics, (2) influence in the “near abroad” (neighboring states), and (3) foreign policy toward the USA. For every period, the study reviews the goals of hybrid warfare, the methods employed, and the features of disinformation narratives (deliberately misleading stories intended to shape perceptions and behavior). The analysis finds that Russia’s disinformation strategy toward the USA is part of a larger hybrid warfare model first tested at home and in neighboring countries. The chosen methods reflect national interests and can at times prioritize regime survival. Unable to confront Western dominance directly, Russia adopts asymmetric methods. Contemporary practice draws on Soviet-era Cold War techniques adapted to modern digital information technologies. The thesis contributes to understanding Russian hybrid tools and ways to identify disinformation narratives, and it shows how observing change over time clarifies the interplay between national interests and external threats.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan Ruslands desinformationsstrategi mod USA har udviklet sig siden 1991 som led i en bredere strategi for hybrid krigsførelse – en kombination af politiske, økonomiske, militære og især informationsmæssige virkemidler. Specialet anvender en neoklassisk realistisk tilgang, som forbinder indenrigspolitiske forhold og lederes opfattelser med internationale magt- og systempres, for at forklare, hvorfor og hvordan Rusland vælger bestemte påvirkningsmetoder. En central pointe er, at staters udenrigspolitik bedst forstås ved at koble indenlandske faktorer med ydre pres. Studiet er et longitudinelt enkeltcase-studie, der følger tre perioder fra 1991 til i dag. Hver periode analyseres gennem tre komponenter: 1) indenlandsk dynamik, 2) indflydelse i det “nære udland” (nabolande) og 3) udenrigspolitik over for USA. For hver periode gennemgås mål for hybrid krigsførelse, anvendte metoder og kendetegn ved desinformationsfortællinger (bevidst vildledende narrativer, der søger at forme opfattelser og adfærd). Analysen viser, at Ruslands desinformationsstrategi mod USA er del af en større hybrid krigsførselsmodel, som først blev afprøvet internt og i nabolande. De valgte påvirkningsmetoder afspejler nationale interesser og kan til tider prioritere regimes overlevelse. Fordi Rusland ikke kan matche Vestens dominans direkte, tilpasses asymmetriske metoder. Nutidens praksis henter inspiration i sovjettidens værktøjskasse fra den kolde krig, tilpasset moderne digitale informationsteknologier. Specialet bidrager med en klarere forståelse af russiske hybridværktøjer og metoder til at identificere desinformationsnarrativer og viser, hvordan observation over tid kan belyse mødet mellem nationale interesser og ydre trusler.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]