A master thesis from Aalborg University
Analyse af tidsplan for et projekt - Simulering og risikostyring
[Analysis of a schedule for a project - Simulation and risk management]
Forfatter(e)
Semester
4. semester
Udgivelsesår
2016
Afleveret
2016-05-30
Antal sider
59 pages
Abstract
Dette speciale omhandler et si-muleringsstudie af en tidsplan for et projekt. Det tager ud-gangspunkt i en undren over den begrænsede litteratur om-handlende brugen af simulering kombineret med risikostyring. Formålet er at identificere de fænomener, som påvirker en tidsplan for et projekt, og en måde hvorpå disse kan håndte-res. Ved undersøgelse af for-skellige scenarier, baseret på bl.a. risikofaktorer, testes det for hvordan disse forskellige æn-dringer påvirker gennemløbsti-den for udførelsen af et projekt. Dette baseres på data fra et byggeprojekt hos Forsvarsmini-steriets Ejendomsstyrelse. Konklusion heraf er, at der skal være øget opmærksomhed på processer, der påvirkes af ude-frakommende risikofaktorer, som virksomheden ikke har no-gen indflydelse på, samt særlig opmærksomhed på processer der ligger på projektets kritiske veje.
This master thesis is about scheduling projects and which challenges a company faces when trying to keep a schedule. \\ The basis for the thesis is the thesis group's wonderment, that risk management combined with simulation is not more widely used for scheduling projects. In the literature these two areas are not as merged as expected. This made the thesis group wanting to connect scheduling and risk management with simulation. The thesis group wanted to study which factors affected the schedule for the project. Some of these factors are the risk factors identified in the article Factors Affecting Schedule Delay, Cost Overrun and Quality Level in Public Construction Projects [Larsen et al., 2015a], which affect the time aspect of a project. The thesis is delimited to analyse this aspect, and not the two other corners from the project "iron triangle", budget and quality. In order to make these analyses the thesis group got data from a reconstruction project from Forsvarsministeriets Ejendomsstyrelse. Because of the uniqueness of a project the amount of data is limited, and therefore makes a normal data analysis impossible. On that basis the input to the simulation model is based on expert knowledge and received schedule. The thesis group chose to use ARENA, as the simulation software, where a model were constructed to reflect the reality, as good as possible. From the constructed model the total duration of the project, and each process' duration were calculated and commented. Based on literature, the risk factors, and common sense a series of scenarios have been constructed, in order to discover how these different changes affect the durations. The conclusion based on these scenarios are that the companies should focus on the processes at the critical path(s) in the project. If the company is able to reduce the variance of processes on this path, it will have a positive impact on the total duration.
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